‘Thor: Love And Thunder’ Falling -68% In Weekend 2; ‘Crawdads’ Carrying $15M-$16M Tune – Saturday AM Box Office Update

‘Thor: Love And Thunder’ Falling -68% In Weekend 2; ‘Crawdads’ Carrying $15M-$16M Tune – Saturday AM Box Office Update

Updated, Saturday AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart…The wearing down of the MCU luster is unfortunately being seen as Disney’s Thor: Love and Thunder is having a great fall with a -68% drop for a second weekend that’s estimated to be around $46.5M. While the Taika Waititi-directed movie improved beyond its high $130M estimates last weekend into the $144M range, it’s clear those sour audience exits of a B+ CinemaScore and 3 1/2 stars are taking their toll.

‘Thor: Love & Thunder’
Disney

Thor‘s second weekend drop ranks among the MCU’s worst including Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (-67%) and Black Widow (-68%). Forget about Spider-Man: No Way Home‘s -68% second drop. That’s largely due to Christmas and everyone knows that Sony/MCU title was making money hand over fist on a daily basis. It’s an outlier. Marvel is getting beaten this summer by a Tom Cruise movie, granted a long-awaited sequel by his fans, with Top Gun: Maverick set to stand at $617.6M by tomorrow. The erosion here in MCU box office bucks and audience exists is a rich man’s problem for studio. Again, is the dilution of results because they’re stretched thin between the development of streaming series and movies? Anecdotally, Thor 4 is quite a fun ride, and if you see it in Screen X, it’s mindblowing. It’s a fast clip at 1 hour and 58 minutes, and not as Byzantine as Doctor Strange 2 and Eteranls. But clearly, something isn’t resonating with fans. I’ve been told by sources that they, and critics, obviously don’t think it’s as good as Ragnarok; that pic despite having a lower opening than Thor 4 at $122.7M, possessed a higher grossing second weekend with $57M. And that was during the month of November, not summer.

Daisy Edgar-Jones in 'Where the Crawdads Sing'

Columbia Pictures

Meanwhile, Sony/3000 Pictures/Hello Sunshine’s feature take of the Delia Owens novel Where the Crawdads Sing is coming in ahead of its $9M-$10M projections with $15.5M-$16M in 3rd, a small win here for a $24 production before P&A. Some rival estimates believe the pic might be able to hit $17M.  The 74% skewing female movie is winning over its core audience in its big screen treatment with 4 1/2 stars, 87% positive, 70% recommend on PostTrak and an A- CinemaScore. Those fans who showed up clearly didn’t read reviews as critics weren’t won over by the weep at 35% Rotten.

Social media monitor RelishMix noticed that the pre-release social chatter “spun around the book as savvy fans wonder how the movie would play with the compression of the story into a two hour film — and the tone of the trailer in relation to how they experienced the ‘lyrical, and haunting, but oddly peaceful story’ of the novel. The added layer of the Taylor Swift soundtrack which was released two weeks ago is also as a fresh element for fans too.”

Hence, those audience exits are quite promising considering that had fans of the book been truly upset, Crawdads would be in freefall at the box office. Crawdad‘s social media awareness levels are running inline with drama thriller norms at 156.5M across Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok. “However, the bonus factor feeding activity on the project is soundtrack artist Taylor Swift with her social network of 431.3M fans including her YouTube channel at 46.8M subs — plus producer Reese Witherspoon at 34.8M fans — at a social grand total of 587.8M,” reports RelishMix.

Fifty-five percent of Crawdads‘ ticket buyers are women over 25. The overall audience was 40% between 18-34, but still an amazing 41% over 45. Box office firm EntTelligence shows that 8% of the audience came after 8PM to see Crawdads, indicating how older leaning the pic is. Diversity demos were 71% Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 4% Black, & 8% Asian/other. Crawdads crooned the loudest in the South and Midwest where all of the top ten grossing theaters were. Pic’s best markets included Dallas, Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Tampa, Nashville, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Austin, cities which largely aren’t typically your highest grossing cities in a given weekend. Only two New York and LA runs were in the top 75; none in Crawdad‘s top ten with NYC Lincoln Square charting at No. 11 through yesterday and LA’s The Grove at No. 20.

Paws of Fury

Ricky Gervais as “Ika Chu” and George Takei as “Ohga” in ‘Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank f’
Paramount

On the downside, Paramount’s animated feature Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank isn’t punching with a $6.2M opening. If you want to know where families want to spend their money, it’s on the third weekend of Universal/Illumination Entertainment’s Minions: Rise of Gru which is racking up $25.3M in second place, -45%, for a running total of $261.8M.

Why is Paws of Fury in a crowded summer market? And not later in the fall which is starving for product? Paramount, nor others in the industry, were expecting Rise of Gru to overpower this much. A two week space in regards to opening felt safe. Paws of Fury was on this release date before Warner Bros. decided to push Black Adam, originally at the end of this month, and replace it with DC League of Super-Pets, which is tracking to do around $30M. Originally the thinking was that Paws of Fury, before Super-Pets’ dating, would have the rest of the summer.

Withering down the appeal of Paws of Fury is the fact that it feels in an animal martial arts movie, too similar to Kung-Fu Panda (despite the fact that Paws is set in Japan and the former franchise in China). There’s the notion that we’ve seen this film before.

Nonetheless, the new creedo moving forward in the motion picture industry that’s chained at the hip to a streaming afterlife is that it’s better to bomb with a film on the big screen rather than send it straight to streaming. The mere fact that Paws of Fury gets a big theatrical release raises its patina and distinguishes greatly in the home aftermarket and beyond, versus if Paramount just dropped this on Paramount+.

Those families who spent their money on Paws of Fury and were polled by CinemaScore didn’t feel it was a waste of time giving the animated movie an A-. PostTrak was significantly harsher with general audiences slamming it with a 66% positive and 49% recommend while kids under 12 enjoyed it enough at 80% positive. Dad-leaning turnout at 51% guys, with 36% under 17 and a diversity spread of 40% Caucasian, 26% Latino and Hispanic, 18% Black, & 16% Asian/other. Paws of Fury was most prominent in the West and Southwest.

'The Gray Man' release date and first photos

‘The Gray Man’
Netflix

Netflix/AGBO’s Ryan Gosling/Chris Evans/Ana de Armas spy film Gray Man which is getting a promotional one-week theatrical play near 400 locations is coming up significantly short in ticket sales next to Red Notice. That Dwayne Johnson-Gal Gadot-Ryan Reynolds action heist film chalked up between $1.25M-$1.5M in its opening weekend at 750 locations. This was during a fall when the box office was beginning to get back on its feet and more auditoriums were available because we didn’t have as many blockbusters around then as we do now. Gray Man is estimated to be doing just under $200K according to distribution sources. Again, the streamer doesn’t care, nor do they report figures. It’s all about maintaining subscribers and possibly adding new ones after this $200M+ investment hits the service on Friday. Even though this movie is at 52% on Rotten Tomatoes, ya gotta think if it was a wide theatrical release, it would be raining an additional $10M-$20M in box office cash on exhibition. They’d gladly take it.

MORE…

Previous, Friday AM: Sony/3000 Pictures/Hello Sunshine’s Where the Crawdads Sing is off to a great start in the pandemic, particularly for a female-skewing property, with $2.3M off Thursday showtimes that began at 3 p.m. in 3,150 theaters.

Again, previews aren’t always a perfect science for smaller movies at the box office, especially during Covid, but it’s interesting to note that the film came in not too far under the $2.5M that the Sandra Bullock-Channing Tatum romantic comedy adventure The Lost City made on its Thursday night in 3,400 theaters off 4 p.m. showtimes back in March. That movie opened to $30.4M in the wake of a hot premiere at SXSW. Although it pulled in 61% women, Lost City was broader skewing in its appeal than Crawdads here, which was projected earlier in the week to make $9M-$10M. We’ll see if those numbers go up.

Film Review: Best-Selling Book Adaptation ‘Where The Crawdads Sing’

‘Thor: Love and Thunder’
Everett Collection

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Love and Thunder is expected to win the weekend again with $50M in its second go-round.

Where the Crawdads Sing’s Thursday night audience loved it with a 93% positive audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and a 4.5-star PostTrak exit.

Another testament to the popularity of Where the Crawdads Sings among its readers: The pic based on the Delia Owens book is blowing away several previews for movies based on Nicholas Sparks’ books, i.e. The Choice ($290K in 2016) and The Longest Ride ($625K in 2015). It’s proof, at least as of Thursday night, that the younger female demo hasn’t had a movie directly targeted at them for a while. As of January, Where the Crawdads Sing had sold more 12M copies.

‘Thor: Love And Thunder’ Heading To $200M+ As Counter-Programming ‘Paws Of Fury’, ‘Crawdads Sing’ Open – Weekend Preview

Meanwhile, Paramount’s animated movie Paws of Fury didn’t see a robust start, with only $505K off showtimes that began at 3PM at 2,650 locations. The pic opens today at 3,475 locations and is only expected to gross around $10M. Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s The Bad Guys saw $1.15M in previews before a $23.95M opening in April, but that was at a time when there wasn’t an abundance of family fare on the marquee. Lots of competition here: We got Thor: Love and Thunder in theaters, which did around $8.2M Thursday, -7% from Wednesday for a $187.1M running total. Then there’s Universal/Illumination Entertainment’s Minions: Rise of Gru, which is still flexing its muscle with $5.4M Thursday, -11% from Wednesday, for a $236.5M total in Week 2.

In third was Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick, which did $1.9M, -6% from Wednesday for a $605.7M running total at the end of Week 7. It passed Transformers: Age of Extinction on Thursday to become Paramount’s top-grossing film of all time, with $1.2 billion worldwide.

Warner Bros.’ Elvis did $1.58M on Thursday, -12% sending its total in Week 3 to $98.5M.

Universal/Blumhouse’s The Black Phone earned $919K in its third Thursday for a running total of $66.7M.


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